The Village at the Park development in Camarillo -http://www.VillageAtThePark.com/index.html/
is approaching the final sales stages. We are beginning to see some resale numbers from those homes purchased in the earlier sales years. I have done some comparisons of those homes offered during the last 12 months of activity. These numbers are derived from our local MLS and the Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors. The comparisons include 68 homes and are broken down into $100,000 increments which run from the lowest priced home at $398,990 which was an expired listing in October of 2006, all the way up to $1,049,000 for a home that is being actively marketed right now. The information presented here does not intentionally include rentals.
This is my own analysis and does not include information on the new homes still being built and offered by the various builders at Village at the Park. I am not affiliated with, nor do I receive any consideration from the various builders, contractors or service related industries at Village at the Park for this analysis. That means I’m getting myself into trouble without help from anyone else! I also caution the reader that although I have been a repeat visitor to Village at the Park, I have never listed a home in that development, and of course most of the sales have been handled by the builders in this relatively new development.
Also, there are several price categories where very few transactions have taken place. My conclusions must be taken with a grain of salt within those categories since each transaction becomes mathematically a major player. I am not considering home upgrades or if a listing might be a short sale. Obviously, these facts can have a significant effect on a home price as well. My remarks are not intended to reflect poorly on the abilities of the listing agents or their clients. That doesn’t mean I won’t poke fun at them. I know they’ll get me back no matter what I say.
There are various categories or sale status terms used for homes listed in the MLS. These are my very abbreviated and marginally accurate definitions for those categories. Each home transaction is very different and sometimes you need a shoehorn to make a specific definition fit. Quotes are from the VCCAR definitions
In all market analysis the best comparible homes are those which have Sold. They are irrefutable evidence of where the market price was at the time the home sold.
Pending or Contingent status homes are of the next most important status since these homes have accepted offers and may soon close escrow and become sold status. Maybe.
Cancelled, and Expired properties I consider failed transactions.
An Expired listing is generally a listing that has timed out. The agent usually will have an agreement - typically up to 6 months to represent the sale of the home. Whatever the agreement states, if the home does not sell in the specified time it usually becomes Expired unless a new listing agreement is made with the seller and the property is re-listed.
A Cancelled listing is a listing which did not make it past it’s listed time frame. There are many reasons this can happen. Poor market pricing – typically a home priced too high for the neighborhood, Seller dissatisfaction with their agent, the failure to meet a condition of sale. “Contract has been cancelled. Check to see if re-listed before calling owner.”
A Conditional Cancellation “is the same as a withdrawal from the MLS. Contract is still in effect.”
A Release from Showing Status According to VCCAR, “this is a temporary withdrawal (clients out of town for a week or two, repairs being made, etc.) The contract is still in effect.”
The Active status is a current listing or sale price of a home on the market. It varies widely depending on if the home is a short sale or foreclosure (usually priced below market for a quick sale), or has been market priced with or without regard to neighborhood short sales. In many cases, it represents the sellers desired sales price without regard to the local market (usually priced too high). Active status homes do reflect market conditions to the extent that you can see how long a home has been offered at a particular price. Presumably the longer a home has been for sale at a specific price, the less accurately it has been priced. As a very rough rule of thumb, you don’t want to see a large gap between the Active price and the Sold price of a similar home sold within a month or two of the Active listing. Why would a buyer pay more for the same home?
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398 to 500K Homes There are only 5 homes in this price bracket.
Sold - Only 1 home in this price bracket has sold in the last year. It sold in March with 1072 sq ft for 407K. It was on the market for 91 days and was reduced by about $1,000 during that time. Obviously, it was well priced.
Contingent - One 1,553 sq ft home went contingent on 1 Oct for 499,990 after only 12 days on the market. Again this home appears to have been well-priced and the additional 500 sq ft fetched an additional $53,000 or 10k per extra 100 sq ft.
Active – Only 1 home listed. 1135 sq ft for 429K and on the market for 35 days to date. This is 22k above the sale price for the home sold in March that was roughly the same size.
Expired – Two listings expired in of October 2006. A year ago a 1,093 sq ft listing was removed after only 92 days on the market and priced at 421,990. The other listing was removed at 398,990.
Summary: Three of these homes had about 1100 sq ft and were priced from 407 to 429K. The one contingent property was 500 sq ft larger and really belongs in the next price category. The agent was smart and dropped the price into a lower category for a quick 12 day sale. He/she also sold for more - at about 322 $/sq ft compared to the 317 and 319 $/sq ft that two homes are still currently being listed for after 40 days on the market in the 500 to 600k price range. He sold more quickly and at a higher price for his client by dropping his listing into the top of a lower price category. He caught the market as it was dropping!
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501 to 600K Homes There are 7 homes in this price bracket.
Sold – Three homes sold. A 1610 sq ft home sold 24 October 2006 for $599,990 in only 15days. A similar sized home with 1553 sq ft sold in March 2007 for $517,000 in 91 days. This is a market drop of 83K in home prices in just 5 months = over 16k per month from October to March. The third home was a bit larger at 1814 sq ft and sold at the end of August for 600K. This home was originally listed for 745K and took 207 days to come down to the 600k sale price! Obviously, homes will not sell until they find the market price.
Active – Two homes offered. One 1752 sq ft home on the market for 39 days and priced at 559K. The second 1859 sq ft home offered for 44 days at 589K. The second home is significant because it is being offered at 316 $/sq ft versus the 330 $/sq ft of the latest sold property in this price category and is nearly the same size. This might indicate the market is still soft for these homes. That is an 11k lower price in 1 ½ months.
Expired – Two homes expired this year, one 1553 sq ft home in October 2006 after 92 days at 530,990 and one 1920 sq ft home in July 2007 after 120 days at 599K. Actually this second home was originally listed for 650k. If it had been priced at the lower amount from the start it would have had an excellent chance for selling. It was slightly larger and lower priced than the home that did sell at the end of August for 600K.
Summary: These homes ranged from 1553 sq ft to 1920 sq ft and are now listing around 316 to 319 $/sq ft, down from 330 $/sq ft in August. So far we have seen 3 examples of how crucial the effect of proper pricing is on a successful home sale in just these first two price categories.
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601 to 700K Homes There are 14 homes in this price bracket.
Sold - Nine homes sold. These ranged in size from 1610 sq ft to 2126 sq ft and sold from 615K to 695K. The average price per sq ft is a bit more at 336 $/sq ft and average days on the market (DOM) was 46 days for this group. All of these 9 home sales were in October and November of 2006! No other homes have resold in this price range since the beginning of 2007.
Pending – One 1920 sq ft home pending at 629,500 and reduced from 639K after 149 days. It is currently in escrow at about 328 $/sq ft which averages 9 or 10 $/sq ft higher than the lower priced homes.
Cancelled – Three homes cancelled in July and August this summer. Two identical 1920 sq ft homes listed for 619K and 636.5K and one 1814 sq ft home listed in the stratosphere for 699,900! (Remember the other 1814 sq ft home that sold in the lower price range for 600K?)
Expired - One 2,022 sq ft home was originally listed at 749K and after 183 days on the market it had been reduced to 699K and expired this October. Even at 699K it was priced at almost 346 $/sq ft. or roughly 18 $/sq ft above the current pending property at 328 $/sq ft.
Summary: These homes are really only represented by one current Pending home. If one sale can be depended upon to represent this group, then sale prices should average about 328 $/sq ft in today’s market for homes in the 1600 to 2100 sq ft size range. That is 8 $/sq ft less than what these homes sold for as a group last October and November.
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701 to 800K Homes There are 16 homes in this price bracket.
Sold - Four homes ranging from 2004 sq ft to 2806 sq ft have sold this year in Jan, May, June and again in August. That’s not exactly a red hot market, but it is better than the other categories for this calendar year. Remember the one pending 1920 sq ft home in the previous lower price category? It is in escrow for 328 $/sq ft. What do you think these homes average per sq ft? The answer is 327.81 $/sq ft!
In all fairness, this is a remarkable coincidence since the home that sold in Jan was at 300 $/sq ft while the home that sold in August went for 361 $/sq ft. There may be some firming of the market in this price range, but let’s see what the Active properties are doing.
Active – Two homes are listed here and provide a real contrast to each other. One home is 2181 sq ft which is about 200 sq ft larger than the latest home sale in this category. It has been priced at 729.9K or just slightly higher than the last home sold at 723.5K. The second home listed is much larger at 2806 sq ft and is listed for 769K. This is just 5K above the same size home which sold in June for 764K. Both of these homes are probably priced just above what the seller actually thinks he will be able to sell for. Since the result would be no actual increase in price from earlier this year, I would hazard the statement that in this price range the market is rather flat with a favorable spike in a recent sales price. That still beats taking a sizeable drop in price.
Cancelled - Three homes in this category. Two homes that were both roughly 2800 sq ft in size were listed at 274 and 287 $/sq ft which is above the 272 $/sq ft of the 2800 sq ft home that sold in June. The other 2181 sq ft home was priced originally at 754.9K and on the market for 128 days. It was eventually reduced to 729.9K and canceled in June. It might have sold if it had been priced there to start with, as it compares favorably with the home that sold in August.
Conditional Cancel - This home is still under contract but has been withdrawn from the market. There was another home that listed in Jan ’07 that was the exact same size and it sold for 795K. It originally listed at 866.5K but within 55 days the agent reduced the home price 71K and caught the market. Not so with our conditional cancel. This home listed originally for 879K some 3 months later. The higher price for this home was presumably because the seller didn’t realize the market was headed down not up! Instead of reducing the home price right away, the home sat on the market for 201 days, gradually reducing in price until conditionally cancelled this month at 759K. Homes are currently listed in this category at 304 $/sq ft while this home was Conditionally Cancelled at about 287 $/ sq ft. That is 17 $/sq ft below the already reduced market price our two active listings represent.
Expired – Five homes in this category. Three of these properties would probably sell if they hung in there for more than 3 months at their final list price. The other two were both listed too high for too long. Sorry if this is a bit abbreviated, but I’d just be repeating my previous discussions for this home status.
Released from Showing - One 2921 sq ft home in this category and priced at 799K it is at 273 $/sq ft which is at the very edge of what these homes sold for in June. In my opinion, a slight price reduction and the home would probably sell.
Summary: This group had the strongest price per square foot and the most sales this calendar year. The smaller 2000 to 2200 sq ft homes are stable around 330 $/sq ft while the larger 2800 sq ft homes are going for a bit above 270 $/sq ft. Outside of those ranges they may have trouble.
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801 to 900K Homes There are 9 homes in the category.
Sold - One 2760 sq ft home sold in 15 days for 829K or 300 $/sq ft. Great Price!
Contingent - Two 3151 sq ft homes which sold for 859K in 53 days and for 879K in 21 days. That is 273 and 279 $/sq ft respectively. Again, very good prices and both sold this month.
Actually, if you look into property history a bit you would see that the home that presumably sold in 53 days was actually previously listed for 133 days at a starting price of 989K! That’s a 130K reduction to get it to market and sold. That’s amazing work by the agent in my book.
Cancelled – There were four properties listed but two were shifted into sold and contingent after reducing their prices. So they were not permanently cancelled. The other two homes were both roughly 2800 sq ft each and within 3 months reduced to a price within 10K of the 2800 sq ft home that did sell. They might have hung in there. 3 months isn’t always enough time to compete, especially if you need part of that 3 months to find the market price.
Expired - Four homes in this category. Originally priced from 859K for a 2800 sq ft home to 969K for a 3417 sq ft home. In my opinion, all of these homes were priced above market for over 120 days each. One home was finally reduced to market but they gave up. The other homes needed a reality check a lot sooner.
Summary: Homes in this category are pending at 860 to 880K for roughly 3200 sq ft. These are especially interesting numbers because these are October 2007 escrows. The slightly smaller 2800 sq ft home sold for 829K in 15 days!
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901 to 1M Homes There are 11 homes in this category.
Sold – One 3879 sq ft home in this category which sold for 950K or 245 $/sq ft. What a great price. And it sold in 1 day! Last January. Ten months ago.
Active – One 4143 sq ft home listed for 915,990. That’s 221 $/sq ft! Just on the market for 7 days now. Run don’t walk. This is a seriously interesting value.
One 3151 sq ft home is listed for 920K. They have already been on the market for 138 days! That compares with the two 3151 contingent properties in the 801 to 900K category that just went into escrow this month for 859K and 879K.
Cancelled – Three of these homes. One 4147 sq ft home started life at 1M and was finally reduced after 154 days to market price at 915K and they gave up. The other two homes started high and still haden’t found market price when they gave up.
Conditional Cancel – There is one 3151 sq ft home which started at 949K 207 days ago and is now at 909K. Sound familiar? You can tell me what it needs to be at now.
Expired – Four homes listed from 913K to 969K. Three of which were 3500 sq ft and one which was 3129 sq ft. Only the 969K home reduced to close to market price. None of the other homes reduced their prices (which were above market). There was only one way these homes were going to sell and they didn’t reduce their prices.
Summary: Homes in this price range are not extremely difficult to price. However, the owners may have a hard time accepting their real market value. Often, they are investors and cannot afford to accept a lower price. We saw repeatedly that 3151 sq ft homes are selling for 860k to 880K. The 3900 sq ft home sold at 950K in January which is probably above market now. The 4143 sq ft model is listed at about 916k and is probably a very good price. We just don’t have any real comps to confirm it.
1.01M to 1.1M Homes There are 3 homes in this category.
Sold – One 3879 sq ft home sold for 1,011,000 in January 2007. Compare that to the 3879 sq ft home that sold for 950K next door and on the same exact date. $61k difference in price! Somebody was motivated, and yes the lot size was the same.
Active - One 3417 sq ft home has been listed now for 80 days at 1,049,000. This story will probably not have a happy ending.
Expired – One 4115 sq ft home which made it from 1.044M down to 1.017K in 85 days. Close but no cigar.
Summary: The market for many of these homes was much stronger this last January. These homes could sell but I suspect they may be priced according to seller needs rather than according to market price. The last 3900 sq ft home in this price range sold in January for 1.011M and I feel prices may have weakened a bit over the last 10 month period. There is a 4143 sq ft home currently being offered at 916K. I would wonder about anything listing for over 950K.
Conclusion: Among the more moderately priced homes there appears to be a gradual resolution of market pricing. However, it appears that as home prices go up, the willingness of owners to part with them at market price diminishes. I’m sure that the new home builders are offering large home discounts on their brand new homes in order to sell them. This can obviously have an adverse effect on those folks who bought at the top of the market two years ago as an investment. With one or two year selling restrictions just now releasing owners to sell, they probably are finding it difficult to recoup their investments. They may be competing with their own home builders. Many of these investors are going to be unwilling to take a loss and sell at a lower price if they can make their payments for a few more years until their equity builds again. That may be part of the reason for the large number of cancelled and expired listings in the more expensive homes. That is really too bad, because these are beautiful homes that deserve to be filled with appreciative families.
For more commentaries and market surveys you are invited to visit my website blog at http://www.markthorngren.com.
Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren
