Hope this doesn’t look too involved, but it really is pretty interesting when you see where the numbers are heading.
First of all, there are 200 homes selected for this report from Westlake, Agoura, Newbury Park, Thousand Oaks and Camarillo. These are all 2 bedroom or larger with 2 bathrooms or more. The homes included are selling now, or have sold for between 400K and 500K. I can do this for any price range, but have picked the most common condo price range. I have excluded all senior communities from these listings. The list looks back over the last six months of our market.
From what I have been able to see, there have been very few price reductions on the active listings. We normally will see a five to ten thousand dollar difference between list price and sales price, but we can still compare the trends.
The homes currently listed (Active Category) are averaging about $466K for original price and curently listed for 459K after an average of 7 ½ weeks on the market. Owners have reduced their asking price an average of $7,000 after an average 53 days on the market (DOM).
Over the last six months, homes went into the Contingent – Backup Category after an additional 6 days on the market. These homes sold for an average of $5,000 less than their original price. From $470k to 465K.
Over the last six months, homes went into the Pending Category after an average 71 days or 10 weeks on the market. They listed at about 457K and went into escrow for about 452K on average.
The final category – Sold – is by far the largest category with 104 homes. Homes sold for an average of 455K after an average of 14 weeks on the market.
In October ’06 – 12 homes sold for an average of 468K; January ’07 - 20 homes sold for an average of 459K; and in April ’07 - 20 homes sold for an average of 456K. We are selling more homes now than six months ago, but their prices have dropped a bit – about 12K for this home category. I’m sure a good accountant or statistician would find plenty to criticise in this rough report, but I think the trend is clear. The market is weak in this market area. Prices have fallen.
When will they bottom out is anyone’s guess but it is also clear that there is a good sized inventory to pick the special bargains from. Interest rates have trended down in recent months as well. You can verify that for yourself in a number of places. How long the low interest rates will continue is also anyone’s guess.
It is more difficult to get easy terms and no money down loans than six months ago. That means that if you have no equity or much of a down payment, or if your credit is not the best, the process may be a bit more difficult and expensive than a year ago to receive a home loan.
I hope this information is useful to you. There are folks that I work with, who would be glad to help you investigate some of the innovative new California Home Mortgage Programs. It might help you to do a little homework along those lines before you start actively searching for a home. Let me know when you feel it would be a good time to get this valuable information, and I’ll be happy to schedule you for a free consultation with myself and a mortgage program expert.
As a buyer, you do not pay me a commission. However, buying a home without good knowledge of the home buying process or of the mortgage programs available – could be extremely expensive over time. I would be happy to help you receive the information you need to save thousands of dollars. Please tell me when you think it would be useful to get together and review some of your family needs.
Find more commentaries and market studies you are invited to visit my website blog http://www.markthorngren.com/
Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren
