3rdQuarter 2013 Ventura County Market Analysis
(July, August September)
Camarillo has seen its’ market shrink significantly this quarter. The total number of homes for sale has dropped from 163 homes in July to 130 homes in September. On a month by month basis we saw the number of homes that came to market drop from 72 single family homes for July to 52 homes in August and finally 28 homes for the month of September. Yikes! Wrong direction!
The number of actual sales dropped from 110 homes in July to 102 homes in August and dropped again to 79 homes in September. This may indicate buyers are a little tired of rising home prices and higher mortgage interest rates which have increased by a point since January.
As home prices have risen (up 15% – 20% over the last twelve months depending on who you choose to quote) the lower priced condo and townhome markets have gotten more popular. The number of townhome properties coming to market has been hovering around 10 homes each month. Also, the average length of time required to sell these condos and townhomes has been dropping from the beginning of the quarter at 71 days in July to 53 days in August and finally 48 days in September. This trend shows fairly strong buyer demand.
Nicer townhome prices now overlap the sale prices of low end single family homes. This puts buyers into the quandry of “Do I buy a nice townhome with a $$$ Home Owners Association Fee or do I buy a fixer upper single family home that needs a lot of work, but which might not have an HOA.” Tough choices.
Oxnardhas had a fairly constant number of properties for sale compared to Camarillo. There were 144 single family detached (SFD) homes on the market in July. Then came a big jump up to 164 homes in August which fell back almost exactly to where it had been before at 143 homes in September. The number of new listings coming to market each month has been relatively constant, ranging from 79 to 86 homes.
The number of properties which have sold each month has increased from 110 homes in July to 125 homes in September. So… where Camarillos’ market has diminished in the last 3 months, Oxnards’ market has been stronger with a big spike in August, returning close to July’s numbers in September.
Ventura is experiencing a steady upward trend in its’ housing inventory. The total inventory of SFD and Condos has grown from 133 homes in July to 140 homes in August and finally 150 homes in September. Most of that increase came from the Single Family Detached (SFD) inventory which rose from 104 homes in July to 113 homes in August and 127 homes in September.
There are a few signs of weakness however, in the increasing length of time it takes to sell a home. The average time to sell an SFD has risen from 54 days to 68 days while condos which used to sell in 36 days, now require an average 51 days to close.
The total number of homes which sold in July was 96 and this number dropped to 78 homes in August and 77 homes in September. So Ventura has more homes coming to market each month but the actual number of homes selling each month has dropped. If this trend were to continue, I would expect to see home prices begin to moderate or soften a bit from the huge monthly increases in home prices that we saw earlier this year.
Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a very gradual increase in their home inventories (like Ventura). In Santa Paula 33 homes were available in July, 35 homes in August and 42 homes in September.
The number of SFD home sales rose from 11 homes sold in July, peaked in August with 18 homes sold, then dropped back to 14 homes sold in September. Fillmore home sales were 10 homes, 15 homes and back to 10 homes in September. Fillmore is often a smaller carbon copy to Santa Paula’s market. This quarter at least, their inventories followed Ventura’s trend, while the number of their home sales followed Oxnard’s trend.
Moorpark has seen market changes very similar to Oxnard with total home inventory increasing from 49 homes in July, spiking up to 66 homes in August and retracing a bit to 60 homes in September.
The number of home sales has dropped overall from 39 homes in July, with a spike in August to 46 homes and then falling back to 32 homes for September. Also, the time it takes to sell a SFD home has risen during these three months from 44 days in July, to 54 days in August and again to 78 days in September. Buyers here may be responding to the higher interest rates and higher home prices.
Simi Valley & Wood Ranch are still seeing an uptrend in the number of homes for sale. The SFD market has seen its’ inventory climb from 117 homes in July, to 142 homes in August and a slight consolidation back to 138 homes in September.
There were 135 home sales for July, a nice upward spike to 148 homes in August and then a big drop to 120 homes in September. Sound familiar? Also, the length of time it takes to sell a SFD home has basically doubled from Julys’ 37 days to 70 days in September.
Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park have seen their market inventory in Single Family Detached homes (SFD) shrink from 200 homes in July to 186 homes in August and on down to 163 homes in September. This is in stark contrast to the second quarter where the inventory grew from 118 homes in April to 178 homes in June.
Townhome and condo inventory has remained fairly stable at between 33 to 35 homes available each month this quarter.
It appears that the home inventory grew rapidly from Januarys’ 102 homes – peaked in July with 235 homes and is shrinking a bit for the early Fall. I think it is safe to say this is typical of most of the rest of Ventura County as well.
Actual home sales rose from 121 homes in June to140 homes in July. August saw sales spike back downward to 120 homes and bounce back up to 136 homes in September. This is a stronger sales market than most of the other towns in West Ventura County, confirmed with fairly consistent sale times of roughly 55 to 65 Days On Market (DOM).
Westlake Village & Agoura Hills is a slightly smaller market than TO and Newbury Park with a home inventory which has grown from 92 homes(vs 136 for TO/NP) at the beginning of the 2nd quarter to 153 homes (vs 197 for TO/NP) at the end of the 3rd quarter. That is a 62 home increase in inventory in 6 months – or roughly an increase of 10 homes per month. That’s a solid achievement.
Sales continued to increase through July with 54 homes selling, then 64 homes in August. September saw what I’m hoping is just a temporary spike down to 46 homes sold. DOM has risen from July’s 73 days to September’s 89 days for SFD homes. Overall I’d say that Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are fairly strong markets, even allowing for the September drop in sales.
Summary It appears that the major trend in our Ventura County markets is a gradual decrease in the size of our home inventory, with the number of home sales increasing through August. Camarillo’s weak market being one major exception and Westlake/Agoura Hills being a stronger market exception. September saw a decrease in the number of home sales in most local markets. This may be a reflection of weak buyer demand due to high home prices, higher mortgage interest rates or maybe just the natural slowing we often see when summer is over and families get ready to send kids to school again.
I’m not ready to get alarmed by last months weaker trends, but I do think what happens in the next several months will be crucial in determining what direction our market is actually moving. Just the way I see it.
Mark Thorngren
(805)443-3366 mark@movewest.com www.markthorngren.com BRE#01413932 Like me on facebook at www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor
